All Saint's Day dawns, and with it, Curbed's November roundtable about the state of the real estate market. To prime the pump, here's a snip of analysis from a report sent our way by John Marchandt:
In each of the last four years we forecasted continued strength in the Manhattan market. This was very much a contrarian view at the time as most commentators foresaw stagnation or price declines. In our view, most commentators focused too much on shorter-term trends, specifically the run-up in the last five to seven years. Our analysis took a longer view and surfaced evidence that prices were still catching up after the steep declines in the 1990s and that income gains and lower borrowing costs meant buyers could afford prevailing prices. A bullish case is harder to make this year, but overall we remain confident... Manhattan has too much going for it: a strong economy; an improving living environment; a rising population; little real estate investor activity; a large pool of wealthy (potential) buyers; and strongly rising rents. We expect prices to rise about 5% a year for the coming three years.
The report got some ink in the Sunday NYT, to whom Marchand opined, "I'm still bullish on Manhattan. But not as bullish as I was." Et toi? We pose the question especially to those who've been on the hunt for an apartment for at least six months. How have you seen the terrain evolve since you started looking?
· Curbed Roundtable: October State o' the Market Report [Curbed]