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Three Cents Worth: Market Smooth, Then Wavy

[This week, our chartman Jonathan Miller looks at prices v. inventory to determine whether we're in for some hard times. Click on the image to exand.]

We entered a recession in 2Q 01-3Q01 when overall market sales prices were erratic. I wonder if we are actually entering a recession right now? I am presenting a 5 year window because thats basically the extent of my detailed listing inventory data so I would imagine we would learn more looking back through the 1980's.

The average sales price, adjusted for inflation, showed a fairly consistent growth trend from 3Q 2001 to 3Q 04. Things got out of whack in the first half of 2005 when prices spiked, marking the end of the housing boom in New York. The market has not reached that level again in the year that has passed as price growth was tempered by increases in overall inventory which has continued to climb until this quarter, based on the stats I released today.

However, the inventory numbers show co-ops down (re-sales) and condos up (re-sales an new development) and served as an offset.
· Manhattan CPI-Adjusted Price v. Inventory [Miller Samuel]