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Three Cents Worth: Inventory Takes A Breather

[This week, our graph guy Jonathan Miller takes a look at stabilizing inventory levels across four New York counties (hello, Long Island!) over the last five quarters.* Click on the image to exand.]

On the national housing front, a lot has been made of the recent (and very brief) stabilization of inventory levels. This stabilization also occurred in Manhattan (New York County) during the third quarter of this year. Inventory levels were virtually unchanged from the second quarter and this pattern could be attributed to the drop in re-sale listings which offset the increase in new development inventory.

Inventory levels also stabilizing in Queens, Nassau and Suffolk Counties (doesn't include the North Fork and the Hamptons) in the third quarter similar to the pattern seen in Manhattan.

Here are a few basic conclusions:

· Make no mistake, inventory levels are still considered high, despite the stabilization.
· These four counties seemed to move in relative unison to each other.
· Inventory levels have leveled out this quarter but were growing at a double digit pace during the same period last year.
· A drop in inventory next quarter is expected but more likely attributable to seasonal patterns, not a return to boom times.

* I would have preferred to expand the time frame to go farther back like I have done for Manhattan but more extensive historical inventory data for the counties outside Manhattan was unavailable. (I am also hoping to add Brooklyn, The Bronx and Staten Island to our data set in the near future.)
· NYC Inventory Change from Prior Quarter by County [Miller Samuel]