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Three Cents Worth: Looking for Flat Spots

[This week, chartman Jonathan Miller digs into each of the four quadrants of the Manhattan market. Click on the image to exand.]

This week I broke out the four general Manhattan regions: East Side, West Side, Uptown and Downtown (see here for boundary definitions) by price per square foot, adjusted for inflation. The beginning (pre-recession) and end (post-boom) of the chart show level market periods that are transitions to a new market. This includes the protracted 4-year level market in the mid-1990's.

While the trends for each market are consistent and all are moving in the same general direction, it appears that the Downtown, East Side and West Side markets have gotten closer together over the past 17 years. Uptown also showed the same pattern but at a much lower price point, although the gap between Uptown and the other markets appears to have expanded slightly during the housing boom.

So far, the current market shows relatively level price conditions by area. Inventory growth is slowing but the economy is cooling. Mortgage rates are falling and Wall Street bonuses are forecast to be at record levels, but many potential buyers are still moving over to the rental market to "wait and see." The market seems poised for more of the same for the next couple quarters, but with so many variables at play right now, who knows?
· Manhattan Co-Op/Condo Sales By Market [Miller Samuel]