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Three Cents Worth: Manhattan Gets Zipped & Ranked

[This week, chartman Jonathan Miller wades into the swamp of price-per-square-foot comparisons, breaking the market down by zip code during the years 2001 (pink bar), 2004 (green), and 2005 (blue). Click on the image to expand.]

After getting pounded for using 4 lines in my chart last week, I took a deep breath and limited myself to 3 columns this week. I presented the Manhattan co-op and condo market by zip code on an average price per square foot basis and found some interesting results. I presented the data from 2001, 2004 and 2005 because that is what I had compiled at this point. One noticeable omission is the uptown market, which I will present in a future post once some of the historical is compiled.

I have presented the zip codes side-by-side by year to draw comparisons. Some highlights and lowlights:

· 2005 highest (in order) 10069, 10012, 10023
· 2005 lowest (in order) 10004, 10002, 10018
· 2004 highest (in order) 10069, 10014, 10019
· 2004 lowest (in order) 10004, 10005, 10029
· 2001 highest (in order) 10021, 10023, 10069
· 2001 lowest (in order) 10002, 10004, 10005

After the jump, some thoughts on the 10069 and more figs.

I was surprised that zip code 10069 was at the top of the list over the past two years and in the top 3 in 2001 as well. This location is the Trump Boulevard developments (soon to be Extell). To be fair, the area is comprised only of condos, with a heavy mix of larger units (no co-ops) and condos tend to be worth more on a per-square-foot basis. The highest areas tended to be stabilized locations with a higher portion of owner occupancy than others and a wider array of residential support services. The lowest areas probably have more potential upside.

3 largest and smallest change in price (in dollars) 2001 to 2005:

· Largest Differential (in order) 10036, 10012, 10007
· Smallest Differential (in order) 10021, 10280, 10028

Typically the markets with the least residential density or lowest price structure have the most potential upside. The exception to this rule was the 10012 zip code, which includes portions of Noho/Soho. That's likely due to the surge in development activity after 9/11. The loft market underwent significant condo conversion activity as the real estate market heated up and larger units were in demand. The 10021 (Upper East Side) and 10280 (Battery Park City) are mature markets, with the former priced near the top of the market already, and the latter (Battery Park City) heavily weighted with entry-level units despite the addition of larger units in recent years tempering the price gains.

It's also interesting that 10021 and 10028 are the only areas that had a lower price per square foot in 2004 than it did in 2001; however, this is attributable to the change in unit mix as entry-level units surged in market share of sales activity. Prices did not drop in these zip codes between 2001 and 2004.
· Manhattan PPSF By Zip Code [Miller Samuel]