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Three Cents Worth: Feeling Bloated About Skyrocketing

[This week, our graph guy Jonathan Miller examines the inventory-to-sales-price relationship, a long and fraught affair marked by marathon counseling sessions and bad Valentine's Day gifts.]


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This week I plotted the quarterly change in the inflation-adjusted median sales price from the same period in the prior year against the change in inventory. The erosion in inventory levels over the past year has been significant, reversing a severe case of post-housing boom bloat and (perhaps) stabilizing the decline in the rate of price growth over the past two years. The "contrarian" Manhattan market that has been widely touted over the past year is all about declining inventory and record sales levels, not prices. In the recent 3Q 2007 report I just presented, with the exception of the top 6% of the market, price are relatively stable at the moment.

Its NOT about "skyrocketing prices." That's leftover canned commentary from 2004-2005.
· Prior Year Quarter Gain (Loss) in Inventory* vs. Change in Median Sales Price [MillerSamuel]