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Three Cents Worth: A Fistful of Quarters

[This week, our graph guy Jonathan Miller gives up his favorite price indicator on his way to an analysis of quarterly trends. Click on the image to expand.]

I thought it would be neat to look at the patterns of each quarter, overlapping them to see how they relate to each other. I selected average price per square foot, which is my favorite price indicator, and adjusted it for inflation. The percent change from the prior quarter was then plotted with each line representing a quarter, from 1989 through 2007.

The 1st (blue) and 2nd (pink) quarters seem to show the most volatility and are generally more positive than the 3rd (orange) and the 4th (green) quarters. The first quarter was most volatile, probably bearing the brunt of the bonus effect and the second quarter is the spring market, the most active market of the year. In fact the 1st and 2nd quarters seem to pair off as do the 3rd and 4th quarters.
· Average Price Per Square Foot by Quarter [Miller Samuel]