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Three Cents Worth: Manhattan Ebb & Flow

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[Appraiser extraordinaire and Curbed's graph guru Jonathan Miller returns, this time with a look at the recent history of co-op and condo sales and inventory, and where the trend is headed.]

[Click to expand.]

Since the pace of sales activity has been the primary focus of real estate market participants this spring, I thought I'd present the relationship between the number of sales and listings on a percent-change basis over the past five years, comparing each quarter to the prior-year quarter and broken out by co-ops and condos.

Co-op and condo patterns were generally consistent, showing the inverse relationship between these two metrics. No surprise there. Higher sales activity yields lower inventory. Given the high number of condos entering the market, while co-ops as a housing stock remain static, I would have thought we would see more condo volatility. However, demand for condos has kept its excess inventory potential in check, and consistent with co-ops.

The trend suggests a lower pace of sales over the next year with a higher level of inventory.
· 1-Year % Change in Manhattan Number of Sales/Inventory [Miller Samuel]