This week I looked at the average number of sales for each quarter going back 20 years and came up with how much of the sales activity was concentrated in each quarter over time by property type.
I found that there were real differences in the way property types behave over the year, and I don’t really know whether this is causation or correlation. Yes, the market generally is most active in the second and third quarters and less active in the fourth and first quarters, but when you drill down to the property types we track in our reports, the similarities seem to diverge.
Co-ops peak in the summer and see the least activity in the winter. I wonder if that’s related to the board approval process. Strangely, the 4th quarter closings (winter) edge out the second quarter (spring). Condos peak in spring and see a sharp decline in the fall.
Luxury properties show a pronounced spike in summer while lofts are similar to the condo market pattern.
In other words, the rules of thumb for seasonality don’t apply to every property in the same way.
· Manhattan 20-Year Seasonal Sales, Market Share By Property Type [Miller Samuel]
· Three Cents Worth Archive [Curbed]