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Three Cents Worth: Recent Volume Was Whacked

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[This week, Curbed's graph guru Jonathan Miller tries to forget about the past two years.]

We are in a different market and its participants — buyers, sellers, brokers, developers, lenders, appraisers, co-op boards, renters and curbed readers — are adapting to it at various speeds. One thing usually said in any conversation about the market is "forget 2008 and especially 2007."

The reality disconnect is shown in the chart by tracking quarterly Manhattan co-op/condo aggregate sales volume (average sales price x number of sales each quarter). The sharp surge in volume in the past two years is evident (red line). I included 30-year mortgage rates (gray columns) to show the inverse trend over the past two decades for contrast, but is not actually needed.

The '07-'08 whacked-out volume surge was several years in the making and included a large concentration of new development activity. This perhaps explains why so many sellers are a year behind the new market?tending to reference the high-water mark in their building and price based on that?but they'll eventually get it.
· Manhattan Co-op/Condo Sales Dollars, 30-Year Mortgage Rates [Miller Samuel]
· Three Cents Worth archive [Curbed]