This week it’s a four-fer as I take a look back over the past five years by quarter to look at several trends in the market share for broad Manhattan categories including co-op versus condo sales, co-op versus condo listings, new development versus re-sale sales (closings) and luxury sale dollars expressed as market share.
Co-op v. Condo Sales: In 1Q 03, Co-ops represented 68.8% of all sales and had largely been at a 2/3, 1/3 co-op/condo ratio for the prior 20 years. Parity was reached in 2006 and by 2007, condos pulled ahead, despite being outnumbered 3 to 1 in actual housing stock, as new development pushed condo market share ahead. In 1Q 09, co-op sales account for 46% of all sales.
Co-op v. Condo Inventory: Co-op inventory followed a similar pattern, with a 63% market share in 1Q 03 and a 34.6% market share in 1Q 09. Condo inventory is likely much higher than what is shown here due to growing “shadow inventory” of newly developed condo inventory, which may be higher than total existing condo inventory.
New Development v. Re-sale: New development accounted for 14.8% of all closings in 1Q 03 versus 42.8% in 1Q 09 but peaked in 2Q 2006 at 57.9%. The spike in 2006 was due to the drop in re-sales rather than an increase in new development activity.
Luxury (top 10%) of total sales dollars v. Non-Luxury: This trend represents the aggregate of total sales dollars of the luxury market (the top 10% of all sales in a period) compared to the remainder. The trend showed a very modest rise from 34.1% market share in1Q 03 to 42.9% in 1Q 09. The modest trend is somewhat surprising given the hype over high end housing in the past several years.
· Market Share You Can Afford [Miller-Samuel]