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Three Cents Worth: Inventory As Two-Hump Camel

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[After a three-week absence, Curbed graph guru Jonathan Miller (also an avid podcaster) returns with an eye on inventory.]

After recovering from my effort to show neighborhoods with a universal perspective, I thought I’d get back to basics. This week I looked at Manhattan inventory levels on a month-by-month basis. This year has seen the highest levels of listing inventory I have tracked in a decade. Although we aren’t finished with Q2/June, the mid-June inventory numbers show a continued decline, falling below 2006, the second-highest levels of the past decade. However, 2006 was an anomaly that saw inventory sharply rise in the spring as casual sellers looking to cash-out flooded the market, fueled by concerns of a spike in mortgage rates.

Generally inventory declines during the "spring market" as sales activity picks up. Contract activity did jump in May and June, likely eroding some inventory. Plus, many casual sellers likely removed their listings from the market, hoping for a better market next year. Inventory trends tend to be like a two-hump camel, rising in spring and fall as sellers bring their properties ro market anticipating more buyers during those periods.
· Manhattan Co-op/Condo/TH Inventory By Month [Miller Samuel]
· Previous Three Cents Worth [Curbed]