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Three Cents Worth: The Manhattan Universe in a Nutshell

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[This week, podcaster and Curbed graph guru Jonathan Miller gets lost in space.]

Because many like to think the Manhattan housing market is in another universe (it's not), I thought I'd try a different visual approach this week. I wanted to show the relationship of some neighborhoods and regions to the overall Manhattan market. Each of the market areas analyzed were based on their change in price-per-square-foot from the first quarter of 2008 to the first quarter of 2009. The data includes both new development and re-sales because I haven't parsed out the two types by specific neighborhoods back more than a few quarters.

The inclusion of new development does improve the performance of many markets, but the point I am trying to make here is the relationship a specific location has to the overall trend. Financial District/Soho/Tribeca, which have a high concentration of new development, appear to be the most overstated because the sales closing now reflect the market of 12-18 months ago.

The location of each neighborhood/region (sphere) above and below the 0% line is how much above and below the overall Manhattan market that location performed between the two periods. For example, Midtown East/Turtle Bay fell 19.3% but because Manhattan's overall price-per-square-foot fell 2.3%, the neighborhood fell behind the overall market by 17%.

The relative size of each sphere is based on their number of sales in 1Q 09. No trending intended for this metric although smaller neighborhoods tend to have more volatility in their results. Larger neighborhoods generally have a more diverse housing stock and tend to have less extreme results.
· Manhattan Co-op/Condo % Change Price Per Sq Ft 1Q 09 v. 1Q 08 Relative to Manhattan Overall Change [Miller Samuel]
· Previous Three Cents Worth [Curbed]