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Charting the Seven-Year Sales and Price Itch

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[If it's the end of summer, it must mean that our real estate appraiser, Curbed graph guru, and podcaster extraordinaire Jonathan Miller is back! This week he's seeing double.]

I thought I'd take a look at each of the five boroughs to review the market ordeal we went through before the third-quarter numbers come in and we hit the fall market. I presented sales and price trends for all five boroughs by year over year quarterly percent change:

1) Number of Sales: With the exception of the crazy Manhattan sales spike in '06-'07 caused by an onslaught of new development closings (which accounted for more than 50% of all sales), the pace of sales activity declined after peaking in 2004, and went negative until early 2009. In lockstep, all five boroughs showed a spike in sales at the end of 2009. I find it interesting that there were record Wall Street bonuses paid out during much of this period as the rate of sales cooled.

2) Median Sales Price: The percent change in prices peaked in '04/'05, a year after the peak in the percent change in sales. The rate of price appreciation for the next 3-4 years started going negative in mid-2007 with the exception of Manhattan. Closings at 15 Central Park West and The Plaza almost single-handedly skewed the Manhattan median sales price for 18 months from late 2007 through 2008. In fact, without those two buildings in the mix, price trends were similar to Brooklyn. It's amazing how Queens/Bronx went in quite the opposite direction while Manhattan was experiencing its new development frenzy.

All five boroughs got back in sync in the first half of 2009, post-Lehman tipping point, but with Queens lagging the other boroughs through the first half of 2010.

Despite a few outliers caused by the new development market in Manhattan, I think many buyers, sellers and agents active in the Manhattan market still mistakenly see themselves as insulated from the rest of New York City.

Scratch that thought right now.
· NYC Residential Y-O-Y % Change in Quarterly Number of Sales [Miller Samuel]
· NYC Residential Y-O-Y % Change in Quarterly Median Sales Price [Miller Samuel]
· Three Cents Worth archive [Curbed]