It's been a long time coming but we are starting to publish Manhattan monthly rental housing stats rather than just quarterly, adding vacancy rates to the mix. We wanted to provide more context to the vacancy rate discussion (hint: it's a seasonal metric). I had to stretch to use an old Sex Pistols reference in the post title, but it somehow seemed relevant.
We define the vacancy rate as active rental listings as a percentage of all building units. The methodology currently uses a universe of 29 buildings that were selected for their size, frequency and reliability of updates?in a perfect world, we'd use every building in Manhattan, but that data is essentially non-existent since it is not regularly updated or accessible on a consistent basis. Manhattan has had a very low vacancy rate for decades so I'm more interested in uncovering trends as in: "The trend is your friend?until it ends."
I've presented the overall Manhattan trend and the four regions consistent with the other Douglas Elliman reports we prepare.
Vacant (vacancy, sorry) thoughts:
Manhattan: From the past year's worth of data (I have more historical which I'l present in future 3CW columns), the market is tightest in April and weakest in June. The rate compresses from June to April rather consistently.
4 Regions:A lot more volatility is seen by regional breakdown but the same basic trend survives. Northern Manhattan shows the tightest vacancy while the West side shows the overall weakest but both declining year-over-year. And what happened on the East Side in June?
· Matrix [matrix.millersamuel.com]
· Three Cents Worth archive [Curbed]