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How to Make the Market Look Better: Take the Long View

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It's February 2, so we're wondering one thing: what does Punxsutawney Phil's shadow sighting mean for NYC real estate? We turned to appraiser and Curbed graph guru Jonathan Miller, who guessed, "More 'shadow' inventory appears and then it's a long cold housing market in 2012." We'll have to wait and see. In the meantime, we've got some historical data to fall back on: it's release day for the 2002-2011 market report. Last year's report included signs of stability, and we're seeing the same thing this year. The total number of sales in 2011 was the third highest of the decade, and the median price of $850,000 is 88.9 percent higher than it was in 2002. But it's down a bit, 3.4 percent, from 2010. In terms of decade comparisons, JMillz tells us he would compare 2011 most closely to 2010 or to 2006 and 2007. Which suggests a market that's out of the woods.
The strongest condo markets year-over-year?in terms of increased price per square foot?were Greenwich Village, Lincoln Center, and the Upper East Side. The Financial District, East Village and LES, and Soho and Tribeca saw the highest price increases for co-ops. Battery Park City, Midtown East/Turtle Bay, and Yorkville fared less well when it came to condo prices, and Central Park West, Union Square/Gramercy/Kips Bay/Murray Hill, and Midtown East/Turtle Bay saw declines in co-op prices per square foot.

With the release of the 10-year market report comes one other goldmine of data: the 10-year Manhattan townhouse report. 2011 saw the highest number of townhouse sale since the credit crunch began, though the total still ended up in line with the 10-year average of 250 sales. The median sales price, $3.654 million, represented a 5.1 percent drop from 2010 but a 111.8 percent increase from 2002. The number of sales rose 21.8 percent in 2011 compared to 2010:

· Market Reports [Elliman]
· 2010 Manhattan Market Parties Like It's 2006 [Curbed]
· Market Report coverage [Curbed]