[This week, real estate appraiser, Curbed graph guru, blogger, and podcaster Jonathan Miller weighs the truth of some popular assumptions.]
By far the three most popular observations about the Manhattan housing market to date in 2012 are: "mortgage rates are at historic lows" and "listing inventory is tight" and?ok, there are just two that are worthy.
I thought I'd mash them together and see what happened since I've never made the direct association. Admittedly I was surprised with the visual that resulted.
The blue line represents the weekly 30-year-fixed rate for conforming mortgages. The pink line reflects the % change in weekly active inventory for co-ops, condos and townhouses. I compressed the scale for mortgage rates on the chart?if I used the same scale for listings it would show mortgage rates as a flat line. Hey, this is Curbed, not the New England Journal of Plate Tectonics.
The result? They aligned surprisingly well.
A few takeaways:
· Falling mortgage rates and falling listings seem to go hand-in-hand. That's likely due to the rise in contract activity working off inventory when mortgage rates drop.
· October is a month of crazy inventory volatility. After Labor Day weekend, the market really ramps up.
· Matrix [matrix.millersamuel.com]
· Three Cents Worth archive [Curbed]