Over the past five years (and for the 13+ years I've collected Manhattan listing inventory), supply bottoms in August and begins a short ascent in the fall. I took a look at the two-week period before and after the Labor Day bottom over the past five years.
The chart shows that the collapse of supply has gained momentum since the heavy listing totals of 2009. In fact, each year subsequent to 2009 the drop in inventory has essentially accelerated. Despite the significant drop in inventory levels, we still see the same seasonal pattern.
While there is no imminent sign of inventory expanding, I suspect we are getting close to the bottom. My bad analogy would compare inventory to employment?full employment is generally considered 5 percent, not 0 percent.
As housing prices rise, home equity also rises, allowing more homeowners to sell. More are able to sell above their mortgage amount or qualify for the next purchase or find something they want to buy. The national inventory picture is slowly improving as prices in the US are rising. I suspect we aren't seeing the same jump in prices as the US market because our exposure to distressed activity has been limited so our sales mix is less subject to skew and was more about BBQ picnics over the long weekend.
· Matrix [matrix.millersamuel.com]
· Three Cents Worth archive [Curbed]