As Thanksgiving draws near, I thought I'd pull out a few of my bad analogies and even stand up for the co-op market. We've been basting (sorry) the Manhattan market with condo talk that seems to imply that the co-op market is not quite as strong (translation: exciting). This week, I plotted the last 13 years (because that is all I could fit on the stove) of absorption by co-op and condo including both re-sale and new development.
For purposes here, I defined the absorption rate as the number of months it would take to sell all inventory at the current pace of sales. The absorption rate is essentially the pace of the market because it considers supply and demand at the same time, much like whether or not you should eat an extra helping of stuffing and not leave room for pumpkin pie. Actually that doesn't work as an analogy, but lets go with it.
Here are a few thoughts.
The co-op and condo markets are clearly in sync over the last 13 years
Co-ops and condos have reached record (13 year) lows, moving at more than twice as fast as their 13 year averages.
Co-ops are moving faster than condos. Condos have an average rate of 9 months but are now at a record low of 4 months (5 months faster than the average pace). Co-ops have an average rate of 9.8 months and a current record low of 3.3 months (5.5 months faster than the average pace).