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Three Cents Worth: Finding 2014 Clues In Oft-Overlooked Data

[This week, real estate appraiser, Curbed graph guru, blogger, and podcaster Jonathan Miller examines the "b-side" of Manhattan's data for clues about 2014.]

As the year comes to a close and we are inundated by "year in review" real estate stories, I thought I'd punch out some metrics that aren't covered very often to see if their respective trends suggest anything for 2014. I looked at the Manhattan co-op/condo closed sales data analyzed for the past few years in our Elliman Manhattan Sales reports to help with context.

Combo sales rising: Their market share is rising, likely in response to limited supply of apartments their equal. Buyers and sellers got creative and without a lot of inventory relief, there will likely be combing of apartments next year.

Luxury inventory as percentage of total inventory: The market share of high end inventory is rising as many try to benefit from this submarket's strength. The problem is a lot of the re-sale product being offered is over priced and likely won't sell. Buyers and sellers at low end of luxury market continue to relate trophy sales to their own. Still, with the new development expected to keep entering the market in 2014 at an above average rate, combined with heightened resale supply, runaway price growth could be held in check.

Inventory not falling as hard: With prices slowly edging higher, we may continue to see more supply enter the market, but still not enough.

Premium paid for sales above list: Other than a spike in early 2012 when the market "woke-up" it has remained in a consistent band and I don't see this changing a whole lot.

Average size of sales trending lower: This is a function of the mix of what is being sold. Falling rates brought a larger mix of smaller apartment sales. With rates expected to continue to rise, I would think this trend begins to reverse next year.

Total square footage sold jumped: Despite the decline in average size of a sale, a record surge in activity over the summer pressed the total a lot higher - hard to believe the same level of volume continues in 2014.

Sales greater than or equal to $10M: There were more $10M sales in 3Q12 than the crazy year end fiscal quarter at the end of the last year. I would think top of the market activity would continue in 2014.

Yes, I tried to use colors that would be seen on a Christmas Tree.
· Miller Samuel [official]
· All Three Cents Worth [Curbed]