This week I took a look at the volume of super high end sales that closed each quarter to show how out of whack current activity is when compared to longer term norms. From 2006 through 2013, the average was 21 apartments sales for $10M or higher per quarter. That's seven per month or nearly two per week for eight years. That's a lot of sales in this price segment, and the volume has been remarkably consistent with the exception of the first half of 2008. The $10M threshold only represented the top 1.7 percent of apartment sales in the third quarter of 2014 (but got 99 percent of our attention). However the first three quarters of 2014 saw an average of 56 closed sales or nearly three times the prior eight-year average.
This recent uptick in $10M sales is conservative given the high number of $10M+ units likely under contract waiting for their respective building's construction to be completed so they can close. We are going to see a lot of $10M+ sales close in 2015 and 2016.
This recent phenomenon could be an historical outlier or the beginning of a new market segmentI suspect it is somewhere in between.