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Three Cents Worth: Manhattan Inventory Keeps On Rising

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[This week, real estate appraiser, Curbed graph guru, blogger, and podcaster Jonathan Miller examines Manhattan's increasing inventory.]

It's that time of year when sellers begin to introduce listing inventory to the "Spring Market"—when sales volume and upward price pressure are generally at their annual peak. I started working on a chart after someone mentioned they noticed a lot of new townhouses being added to inventory. Manhattan townhouse inventory has been rising since the beginning of 2014, showing a similar pattern to co-ops and condos. From the end of December 2013 to end of February 2014, townhouse listing inventory is up 12.8 percent, while co-op listings are up 11.1 percent and condos are up 20.2 percent. To provide some context for these numbers, I expanded the chart to include a 14-year monthly series breaking out co-ops and condos in addition to townhouses.

The result?

- All three property types are seeing rising inventory since the beginning of the year.
- Inventory generally rises this time of year so the gain is somewhat seasonal.
- In the context of much of the prior decade, the rise appears to be fairly nominal.

It'll be interesting to see if inventory is once again overpowered by sales in the spring. I'm skeptical that we'll see the same high level of sales in 2014 as we did in 2013, and as a result, I expect a little more inventory to stick around in 2014, but not nearly enough to be considered reasonable.
· Miller Samuel [official]
· All Three Cents Worth [Curbed]