That Harlem townhouse prices are skyrocketing is no surprise; every few months, a new townhouse comes on the market trying to create a new sales record. Most recently, a five-bedroom townhouse overlooking Marcus Garvey Park was asking $5.4 million.
But the extent to which Harlem townhouse prices have skyrocketed has been detailed in a new study published by PropertyShark. Their research showed that the average price per square foot on townhouses had increased a dramatic 171 percent from 2009 until now. In 2009, the average price per square foot stood at $237. That has now increased to $642. It’s still not the neighborhood peak, which was $855 per square foot, and was achieved last year.
It’s still much lower compared to the rest of the island, with the average price per square foot in Manhattan hovering at $1,838 at present. The difference is even more stark when you compare it to other pricey neighborhoods in Manhattan. For example, in Downtown Manhattan, the price per square is an astronomical $3,294.
Taking all of those facts into account, PropertyShark has predicted that with an average yearly growth rate of 15 percent in Harlem, the price per square foot could surpass $3,000 in the next 10 years. That would be almost as high as the average for the entire island in 2028, which PropertyShark predicted to be $3,132. Still, Harlem would be much lower than Downtown Manhattan, which PropertyShark predicts will reach an average price per square foot of $7,462 in 2028.
The predictions are based on current market trends so we won’t know for sure if they will hold true a decade from now. But more than that, growth in a neighborhood that has been previously overlooked always seems larger at the outset, and eventually tends to level off, Constantine Valhouli, NeighborhoodX’s director of research told Curbed. Valhouli elaborated further:
Harlem began as undervalued, and the lower prices reflected risk and uncertainty about the neighborhood's future. At the beginning period of the analysis, there was not a Whole Foods (itself a lagging indicator of changing demographics and discretionary income - not a leading indicator). The neighborhood has shifted from transitional to emerging, and the pace of growth will slow until prices likely come in line with those of the surrounding, more affluent neighborhoods.
Big changes are in the works for Harlem regardless, including the proposed rezoning of East Harlem, which is facing mounting opposition from local residents.